Threat of defections to the opposition not over yet, There is still a wait-and-see attitude after Sabah MPs meet Abdullah
By Carolyn Hong, THE STRAITS TIMES
Saturday, 17 May 2008 

THE Wednesday deadline has come and gone, but the topic of Barisan Nasional MPs defecting to the opposition is still the hottest topic in town.
There were strong rumours that at least 17 BN MPs from Sabah were planning to cross over to the opposition coalition Pakatan Rakyat last Wednesday - but it didn't happen.

The day passed peacefully, but this came after a lot of behind-the-scenes and overtime effort by Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi.

He obviously did not take the threat lightly as he spent much of the week meeting the heads of the Sabah BN partners to listen to their woes. And he bought his government time.

The Sabah MPs have been unhappy after Datuk Seri Abdullah did not increase their representation in Cabinet after the state delivered a sterling performance in the March 8 polls.

Their grouses burst into the open this week when several BN MPs from Sabah spoke up in Parliament about the neglect of their state, and dropped heavy hints about a crossover.

The imminent threat had fizzled out. But the danger for Datuk Seri Abdullah and the BN is not over, merely defused, wrote political commentator Joceline Tan in The Star yesterday.

There is widespread belief that Datuk Seri Anwar has secured a significant number of MPs, but the general view is that he probably does not have enough.

'Politically, I would think that he would have done it very quickly if he has the numbers,' said Mr Khoo Kay Peng, a political analyst.

Still, all kinds of numbers are still being bandied about, anything from 17 to 43.

The opposition coalition needs at least 30 BN MPs to cross over to topple the federal government, but analysts say the crossovers may not be simple as pure numbers.

For one, there have to be enough Malay-Muslim MPs to keep a fair ethnic balance in the opposition, to stave off the perception that Datuk Seri Anwar's coalition was taking power without equitable Malay representation.

It does not appear that he has enough Malay MPs on board, according to opposition sources.

This is supported by the steady ratcheting up of the Malay rhetoric in recent weeks.

Datuk Seri Anwar has blamed Umno for raising the temperature, saying that it was a panicky move. It was a way to lay the ground for painting the opposition as one that would not have Malay interests at heart.

The other possible sticky point is that the crossovers could unbalance the delicate opposition coalition. At present, the three parties have roughly the same number of MPs each, although Datuk Seri Anwar is seen as the de facto head.

Most of the crossover MPs are likely to join his Parti Keadilan Rakvat, given his involvement in bringing them over. This would put PKR in a dominant position.

'There are concerns within DAP about this. We don't want to be sidelined,' a insider from the Democratic Action Party told The Straits Times, but also noting that the party did not want to remain in opposition permanently.

But a solution was offered earlier this week when Umno MP from Sabah Ghapur Salleh suggested that a new political party could be set up for the defecting Sabah MPs.

It could then become the fourth party in the opposition coalition.

'We can move by simply forming a new party. Then we can decide where we want to sit...here or there,' Datuk Ghapur said in Parliament earlier this week.

This is increasingly becoming the likely scenario to address the power balance within the opposition coalition, if it were to absorb a large number of defecting MPs.

But even without the tricky negotiations within the opposition, a crossover is not quite a done deal.

There is still a wait-and-see attitude after Datuk Seri Abdullah's meeting with the Sabah party leaders. They have asked for greater representation in the Cabinet, more autonomy in the state, and a resolution of the illegal immigration problem.

They are also demanding that Sabah get 20 per cent of the oil royalties, up from the present 5 per cent.

A Sabah party leader Yong Teck Lee said this week that they want to see action by August.

Said political analyst Mr Khoo: 'This is the last window for the Prime Minister to do something. If he can address it well, he might survive. But it's very tricky.'