Can two-party system be an alternative?
by Aspan Alias
June 7, 2009
PAS muktamar have decided on their line-up for this season and some unexpected result surfaced.
The earlier speculation that Husam Musa would win the Deputy President post went flat as the delegates decided to retain Nasharuddin Mat Isa as its Deputy with 199 votes majority over him, which many consider as a thumping win for the ulamak group.
PAS party election invited great interest from everybody especially from the public, because PAS now stands as a formidable party of alternative to the ruling BN.
PAS is already standing tall among the rakyat and its influence is far reaching and together with her coalition partners they managed to take executive charge of three states within the peninsular. PKR and DAP now control Selangor and Penang respectively.
PAS has gained the support of the non-Malays as her process of elucidation and revelation of the party’s struggle has slowly and surely made the non-Malays comprehend, appreciate and support their struggles.
With formidable strength that PAS enjoys presently, the party is also giving good favor for UMNO as the party has to move for transformation without which it would continue to wane and diminish its support of the people including its own members.
To the minds of the public presently having a strong national policy by the ruling party, and formidable strength of alternative party would be good for the nation.
BN has been for the past 2 decades ad infinitum taking everything for granted as they were given unanimous support by the people and resulted in PAS and other opposition parties only had splinter representation in the Legislative bodies for decades.
The continuous, unanimous, undivided support and the friendliness of the voting public have obviously been taken as weaknesses by the BN, and more glaring in UMNO.
UMNO leaders had been unable to feel the throb of frustrations among the members as they believed that Malays will never go against their leaders.
BN leaders have lost all moral sanity to the extent that what they do, even though immoral cannot be criticized and they take offense to critics against them.
UMNO leaders at all levels visibly and perceptibly became arrogant thinking that the world is theirs and that created impassiveness with the public who voted them to be in command.
BN leaders were too apprehensive to lend their ears to the ground and leave the people out of all decision they make. To them we should just follow and bow to their wishes and say nothing against.
For many elections in the past BN never failed to exploit racial sentiments by harping on the May 13 1969 incident, obviously to threaten the unhappy voters not to vote for the opposition, thus covering all their roguish acts.
Supporting PAS was like a crime to them as the alleged PAS is an extremist party that would lead the nation to be isolated by the modern world community which is entirely not true.
The media, both the electronic and printed ones, played the sentiment in tandem with the BN, turned and curved with the power of the ruling party and within that media community there were some unambiguous opportunists which we realized only a while after.
Media community in this country who was supposed to be professional were not professional and in our short history we could see some fortunate media men became multi-millionaires through corporate exercise and paper shuffling.
On the contrary the opposition parties had real tough time to get reached to the people and along the way; some of their leaders were arrested and put under solitary detention.
Going to court for fair arbitration was no more an option as the Judiciary too had been adulterated by BN especially by their leaders with high appetite to rule longer than he should be. That is noticeably one of the many reasons why the rakyat resorting to express their disapproval in the ballot boxes.
The Judiciary has long been put under trial and has been very subservient to the Executive ever since 2 decades ago.
The oppositions were just unable to prove of the corrupt practices of the ruling government as these heinous acts were protected by legislated acts like Official Secret Act (OSA) and the Police Act.
BN went on committing the offence without sense of right and wrong until the rakyat came to the fore and protested against the ruling party in the ballot box in March the 8th 2008 and denied the two third majorities which BN have been enjoying morally illegitimate power for past couple of decades.
From then on the status of opposition parties has been glaringly uplifted to the level of Alternative Parties. They are now very much of consequence and BN is not in the position to disagree with that fact any longer.
Ever since this alternative parties which grouped themselves as Pakatan Rakyat has played an alternative role to the BN in all State Legislative Assemblies and Parliament.
Malaysians are now waiting for the beginning of a two-party system which has been practiced by many advance nations.
The two-party system will in parallel bring in good and viable mechanism as check and balance (don’t be mistaken with cheques and balances), for whichever party that rules.
For instance if Pakatan Rakyat is given the mandate in the coming General Election the voters can always deliver their votes back to BN in the following GE if they are not performing as anticipated by the people.
In essence the system would consequentially provide legitimate support to the ruling party rather than securing support through intrigues and manipulations of power.
It also actualizes the true supremacy of the people as have been rhetorically been the issue and loudly said in the speeches of the current leaders.
Both parties should eventually go through the General Elections with funds provided by the government like what is practiced in many great democracies of the world.
This is not an idealistic attribute of Democracy; it’s basic.
That is all for now and I may express the expansion of my unassuming opinion on this issue in my next posting if necessary.
Thanks………………………………………………Aspan Alias
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Why there is so much Pakatan Anger against hadi and Nasharuddin
by Shamsul Yunos
June 7, 2009
The answer is quite simple, the loud clangs that you hear in Pakatan mouthpieces like Malaysia Today, Malaysiakini, Malaysian Insider, Nutgraph and others are the voices of those who do not want to see Malays united.
You see, when PAS president Haji Hadi Awang and Deputy President Nasharuddin Mat Isa talked about the unity Government, the message they are sending to PKR and DAP is this; DO NOT take Malay rights and Islam lightly, do not for a moment think that PAS will abandon Islam and the Malays for the convenience of political victory.
I may have some fundamental disagreements over Hudud and PAS's brand of Islam but I have always respected their steadfastness and principles, they know that the fight is for establishing an Islamic state and they will step forward to declare those intentions and take the stings and barbs of those who oppose them like a man.
PAS has been on the receiving end of some very sharp barbs from the DAP for championing Negara Islam and Hudud but what DAP, certainly and Anwar Ibrahim pretends to, not understand is that Hudud and Negara Islam are the two major pacifiers that convinced Malays to vote for DAP and PKR even when they cannot stand the rocket or the candidate's face.
With their experience in the trenches, PAS knows the value of their supporters and they know that their consistency over Negara Islam and Hudud has allowed them to enjoy unwavering support from Malays of a certain age and disposition.
PAS was simply reassuring their supporters that they have not deviated fromtheir fighting aims and goals just because they are in bed with DAP's Anti-Islammic state stance and PKR's malleable morals.
What PKR and DAP fail to realise, because they have their anti Islamic-State and Me-PM blinkers on, is that the noises coming out of Muktamar 55 pacified millions of Malay voters on both sides of the fence and many of those on the fence.
The noises coming out of Muktamar 55 had the effect of lowering the political temperature somewhat among the Malays.
PAS has done a good thing, but those at DAP and PKR are angry because PAS pointed out the mistakes of the fledgling coalition. I hope they keep their blinkers on and continue to hound PAS, that will only make PAS stronger.
The upshot of the Muktamar is that Anwar suddenly looks a lot less important and PAS may not be so keen to have him as Prime Minister even if they do win the nect General Election. After all Anwar track record shows that he is a pure politician and not really a leader.
Anwar is one of the best political organisers, one of the best rabble rousers but hardly a visionary leader and certainly not someone with a lot of ideas.
I had a conversation with a senior editor last night and he told me of how after hearing Anwar quote Nietzsche in his speech, he later asked Brother Anwar Bin Ibrahim to elaborate on the interesting point.
This immediately drew a nervous blank and the Brother resolved it by asking his speechwriter to explain the quote. So you know anwar appears only as intelligent as his speechwriters can make him.
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Is Nasharudin's victory good or bad for UMNO
by Wenger J Khairy
June 5, 2009
As usual the Malaysian Insider got it wrong. Whilst they had earlier predicted a victory for the Erdogan faction, in the end, the post of Deputy President of PAS was retained instead by Nasharudin, or more colluqially known as the pro UMNO candidate.
I had refrained from commenting on the PAS election till the results were out. But now since it has been confirmed, I'll share my opinions.
First we have understand a bit of economics. If the demand for a particular product is deemed elastic, a small change in price will cause consumers to prefer a cheaper product to a more expensive product. The second thing to note is products which have perfect substitutes will demonstrate more elasticity than products which do not. For example, if the demand for rice is elastic, you will readily prefer to buy rice Cap Thambi than rice Cap Naga if rice cap Thambi was cheaper than rice Cap Naga.
The second thing to understand is short run and long run effects. Suppose that your family was buying rice Cap Naga for the last 20 years. If tomorrow, a new brand called rice Cap Thambi was introduced to the market, you may not immediately switch over to rice Cap Thambi even though it was cheaper. But in the long run, over a couple of years, you would probably do that. And many people will do just the same thing, so it is perfectly possible for rice Cap Thambi to be emerge as the most dominant player and the makers of rice Cap Naga driven out of business.
Okay now back to politics. First we must understand what the market is and what products exist to serve the market. There are 2 political markets in Malaysia the Malay market and the non-Malay market. And how are the markets segmented?
The Malay political market to me is segmented into the ultranationalistic segment, which is about 35%, the right of centre segment which is about 40% and the anti Government segment which is about 25%. So what this means is that campaigning on Ketuanan Melayu will appeal to about 70% of the Malay voters, and the conversion rate is quite high, about 5.5 out of 7 will vote UMNO based on this approach. Now UMNO is quite successful in maintaining this segment because the differences between the 2 competing products - UMNO and PAS are quite stark. UMNO favours Ketuanan Melayu wherelese PAS favours PAS 4 All. To me, PKR is not really a major force in the Malay political market. By themselves, they can perhaps hope for at best 25 - 30% average support.
The non-Malay political market, and the Chinese in particular is segmented at 55% anti Government, 35% leaning towards anti Government and maybe 10% being pro Government. In the current scenario, PAS and PKR is favoured over UMNO overwhelmingly as evidenced by the recent byelections held in Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau. Once again the products offerred are easily differentiated, the identity of the MCA is completely discounted and the Chinese see instead through it to UMNO which proposes Ketuanan Melayu whilst PAS and PKR propose something that is not Ketuanan Melayu.
That is the situation as is.
With the election of Nasharudin, in the short run, the non-Malay political market would not receive the result enthusiatically. They will see this as a betrayal of their support towards PAS in the last couple of General Elections as well as the resurrenge of a more hardline approach by PAS and may in the short run feel that after all considered, whilst the BN formula stinks, it may be the most palatable after all.
Now in the short run, the Malay voting base will view this differently altogether. They will view this as a commitment by PAS to incorporate aspects of Ketuanan Melayu in their political discourse and will make them more palatable to this electorate. Or in other words, from a political idelogoly point of view, the differences between PAS and UMNO continues to get blurred.
This does not mean that PAS and UMNO will merge anytime soon. It just means that it is now more likely for a Malay voter to substitute his preference for UMNO with a vote for PAS, as they offer the same product.
However it is in the long run that matters the most. If PAS does indeed join UMNO, the Oppostion is finished and the end losers will be the MCA, PKR, and the DAP in that order. MCA will be content only fielding 20 or so parlimentary candidates, with the remaining going towards PAS. The PKR machinery will be also exposed for what it is - thoroughly unprofessional and lacking in grassroots support. So in the long run, we will probably emerge with a situation whereby PAS and UMNO controls about 60-65% of the parlimentary seats.
But that assumes PAS does indeed join UMNO.
So unless PAS does indeed join UMNO, any euphoria surrounding the victory of Nasharudin should be viewed with skepticism. After all, if UMNO loses badly in Manek Urai, this would drive home my point.
Lets wait and see.
PS: Thats why I view the takeover of the Perak SG as being a blessing in disguise for PAS. It allowed them a convinient way to exit a situation where the PAS party was being seen to accede to the wishes of the DAP without any political baggage. If left to its own devices, the debacle would have broken Pakatan. But right now, UMNO intervened and took the bullet.
Nasharuddin’s Victory: Is it good?
by Sakmongkol
June 8, 2009
It's bad for UMNO. It will stultify the much needed internal changes shouted about.
Nasharudin Mat Isa's victory over Husam Musa, showed two things:-
1.UMNO is really scared of Anwar Ibrahim. Hence the defeat of Anwar's chief ally in PAS, Husam Musa is hailed all around.
2.That victory will further induce UMNO's paralysis. It actually does not want to change. The Nasharudin victory is seen as a much needed life support machine to UMNO.
What is happening now is while the base on which UMNO derives its support has undergone tremendous changes, the top or superstructure has lagged behind. UMNO simply does not get it. More Malays did not vote for them during the last elections and they still refuse to change. The party becomes the lid which can no longer contain the build up of internal pressures. The leadership stubbornly resists changes and welcomes any excuses that can justify its obstinacy.
What is it that UMNO needs now to ensure its longevity and continued relevance? What it must do after the disastrous performance in the 12th GE and amidst the party's declining credibility and with it, its legitimacy, is to undertake invasive surgery upon itself. Yes, that would be in line with the avowed declarations that UMNO must change radically. Who said that is now no longer important.
One simple glitch that could dampen the already not serious intention is a sudden feeling of false security. This could come in the form of thinking and feeling that the victors in the recently concluded PAS elections are sympathetic to UMNO's agenda.
This is why I see Nasharudin Mat Isa's victory is not good for UMNO. It will prevent UMNO from undertaking its own internal re-engineering. It will provide the flimsiest excuse for UMNO not to undertake its own reforms. Because of that, UMNO is just prolonging its inevitable demise. The prematurely ejaculated enthusiastic responses from UMNO people serve only to betray the true unwillingness to change. How could we expect those with vested interests to sign away their privileges?
Let us use some simple concepts in economics to analyse why this is so. If the euphoria from UMNO supporters to the Nasharudin win is an indication, then PAS under the stewardship of Hadi Awang and Nasharudin places the party and UMNO in the context of substitute goods.
In economics, a good or service is a substitute good in so far as the two goods can be consumed or used in place of one another. It is an either/or choice which makes no difference as whichever one we eventually chose. Hence, if we vote for PAS, it makes no difference not to vote for UMNO because our decision serves the same purpose.
This is what the Nasharudin Isa's win makes PAS. It makes the party an almost perfect substitute for this thing called UMNO. Then UMNO is the BUTTER to PAS's MARGARINE or UMNO is the PETROLEUM to PAS's NATURAL GAS. The last two goods are used for heating or electricity and it does not make difference whichever good we use for the purpose we have in hand.
The notable economic effect of these two goods being almost perfect substitutes is that the demand for one good is tied tot the other god. Hence customers can TRADE OFF one good for the other if it becomes advantageous to do so.
Therefore, if now I feel it is advantageous to choose PAS because it's an almost perfect substitute for UMNO, then I will tell myself why not? I am not losing out on anything. PAS can deliver the same things as UMNO can.
The danger is this- if UMNO makes itself more expensive such as by portraying itself as all round obnoxious entity, then people will gravitate towards PAS. This follows from the principle that an increase in price of good A will result in an increase in demand for its substitute. For example an increase in the price of timber for home construction will result in increased business in concrete.
Now, PAS under Nasharudin and Hadi Awang is a perfect substitute for UMNO because PAS can deliver the same things UMNO can. Theoretically speaking, in case of a price difference, there would be no demand for the more expensive good.
Imagine now, UMNO makes itself more expensive in a number of ways. Its leadership is full with riffraffs, nondescripts and low quality leadership. Its culture of personal aggrandizements is pervasive and destroying any residual idealism. It is haughty and its image is revolting. The sum total of these, make UMNO 'expensive' and that makes PAS more appealing.
The danger of treating Nasharudin's win as welcoming, is to relegate UMNO and PAS as good substitutes. In economics when we speak of good substitution, we mean two goods are of comparable value. We can argue the two are different, but as we have seen, if the price of UMNO goes up, people will buy PAS. We can argue that Ford pickup trucks are different from Nissan trucks, but if the price of Ford trucks goes up, I will buy a Nissan truck.
Therefore, Nasharudin's win is not good for UMNO. His victory must be treated with more circumspect.
