PERMATANG PAUH, Aug 26 — After 10 days of campaigning by the candidates, the voters of Permatang Pauh go to the polls today in a by-election that could put opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim back in Parliament.
Observers expect him to win easily, reversing earlier predictions that his margin of victory would be slashed. This comes after the latest twist in the allegations of sodomy levelled against him.
"I have made it very clear that the economy must be corrected. Which means we must do away immediately with cronyism, procurement and contract policies that favor sons and son-in-laws and family members. That's why you find [the prime minister's] son-in-law has launched a very vicious personal campaign against us."
By Shawn W Crispin, Asia Times Online
Malaysian politician Anwar Ibrahim is headed either for the premiership or prison, depending on how highly anticipated political events play out in the weeks ahead.
His opposition alliance made important gains at March general elections, breaking the ruling United Malay Nasional Organization (UMNO)-led coalition's two-thirds majority hold over parliament and wresting control over five of the federation's 13 states, including the country's main economic territories.
Anwar's ban from politics on a corruption conviction expired in April and since he has aggressively upped the tempo of the opposition alliance he nominally advises but de facto leads. He has boldly predicted his alliance will have secured enough parliamentary defections to topple Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi's coalition government and form his own administration by September 16.
Anwar's formal return to politics is a key precondition for those defections to commence and all eyes now are on the upcoming August 26 by-election at Permatang Pauh, where Anwar is contesting and widely expected to win a parliamentary seat recently vacated by his wife, Wan Azizah Wan Ismail.
Against that script, the attorney general last week formally charged Anwar with sodomizing one of his former personal aides, charges he has characterized as a conspiracy and similar to the accusation he was convicted and incarcerated for in 1998 after falling out with then-prime minister Mahathir Mohammad. (Sodomy is a criminal offense punishable by 20 years in prison in mainly Muslim Malaysia.)
Anwar contends his opposition alliance aims to promote more democracy and racial equality, though a hard-line Islamic party included in his coalition raises critical questions about that assertion. There are also questions emerging about his willingness to accept establishment UMNO politicians into his supposedly pro-reform camp.
Incumbent Abdullah was elected in a 2004 landslide on a similar pro-democracy, pro-reform platform, but was handed a strong democratic rebuke at this year's polls due to widespread perceptions he failed to live up to those reform promises. In a wide-ranging interview with Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor Shawn W Crispin, Anwar explains why his democratic drive to power is different.
Asia Times Online: Many see the political situation in Malaysia now as strikingly similar to the events in 1998 that ultimately led to your demise and incarceration. How is the situation different this time?
Anwar Ibrahim: It is generally similar, but the political environment allows for more space now, I would acknowledge that. In 1998 it was clearly more authoritarian and the measures crude and very dictatorial.
But on the issues of governance, economic management and corruption, it is worse. I'm talking about internal institutions, how they are being used to benefit those in power and make others vulnerable against the might of the ruling clique.
ATol: The latest sodomy charges brought against you are widely seen as politically motivated. What happens next if you are convicted and sentenced again?
Anwar: Well, if sanity prevails, and there is the barest minimum respect for the rule of law, no one would expect me to be charged - but I have been charged. It is unlike in 1998-99, when it all came as a surprise and no one had the courage to say anything beyond that.
As you must have seen the medical report [of the alleged sodomy victim] is already in the public domain. Which means the whole basis of the charge is now flawed and could only be done under the instructions of the ruling elite and the prime minister in particular. I believe both the prime minister and his son-in-law, who we know for a fact now, is deeply involved in this whole episode.
Now even the second medical report by the panel at the general hospital also affirms the fact, ruling out any possibility of assault or sodomy, whether forced or consensual. So it's not only a general perception the charges are political, but is conclusive and clearly an attempt to smear my personality and to try to derail our reform agenda towards democracy and my candidacy in the upcoming by-election.
ATol: As those allegations come unraveled in the public domain, some now see worrying parallels to the run-up of the 1969 race riots, when opposition assertiveness escalated into street violence which saw ethnic Chinese targeted and killed by ethnic Malays. What is the risk that UMNO resorts to stoking ethnic passions to foment social unrest and uses that as pretext to crack down on your movement?
Anwar: The ruling UMNO has launched strong racist attacks and propaganda, accusing me initially of being pro-American and now as pro-Malaysian Chinese and a betrayer to the Muslim and Malay cause, but they have not succeeded.
At the March 8 elections they tried to do that, but the transformation, the political change in the five states [that voted for the opposition] has gone on very smoothly and we have survived almost five months now.
Looking back to the tragic experience of the race riots of 1969, you had the formation of a ruling government that was essentially Malay versus a predominantly Chinese or non-Malay opposition. Now that you have a very strong multi-racial opposition, they cannot use the race card.
ATol: What is the risk the government attempts to bait your supporters into some sort of street melee which allows them to crack down on the pretense your movement has undermined racial harmony and social stability?
Anwar: Yes, you can see the political leadership's increased rhetoric of Malay survival and Malay supremacy. And in the last few days the prime minister made the clearly irresponsible remark that the slowdown or downturn in the economy is due to Anwar.
This is the main news in all the government-controlled media, that Anwar is responsible for the economic downturn. This, of course, can be played up continuously and therefore you are a threat to stability and the national economy, giving them the option to use draconian measures against you, including the Internal Security Act (which allows for detention without trial.)
ATol: You fear the situation is heading in that direction?
Anwar: I don't fear, but I feel the public must be alerted.
ATol: How confident are you in the cohesiveness of your multi-racial opposition alliance? There were recent reports that the Islamic PAS party, a member of your coalition, was in talks about joining an alliance with UMNO.
Anwar: We will continue to face teething problems, not unlike the government coalition where it is all subdued and not open to the media. In our case, we all practice democracy and our discourse is publicized in the media. I don't deny the fact that we will have to deal with this though.
But if you look at the five states we now rule, we've hardly had any real problems. Secondly, among the leadership - you know most of the meetings are coordinated by me personally - we have had regular meetings and resolved most of these issues, even the most contentious issues about an Islamic state, apostasy and others.
ATol: How certain are you that you have the numbers to form a new government by September 16. You've made the claim, but how firm are the guarantees you have received from potential defectors?
Anwar: I first need to work on the first hurdle of winning the by-election. We are still dealing with a system questioning the eligibility of my candidacy, with questions over the conduct of the election commission, the use of the security apparatus.
Particularly you notice that the inspector general of the police is personally involved [in managing the by-election], even though he has a personal vendetta against me. So we don't want to underestimate any of these forces. Anyway, we are talking about hundreds of millions of dollars [that] will be thrown into that small constituency.
Many have made as a precondition of any defection of MPs to our side that I have to be in parliament. I am optimistic that they will keep their word and once I enter parliament you will see some change. So right now we are still very much on track.
ATol: What qualifications do you require of defectors and isn't there a risk with an avalanche of defections that your supposedly reform-minded government will actually be full of establishment UMNO politicians?
Anwar: We take a very open position. One, they have to agree on the reform agenda of freedom and democracy, our new economic agenda, an independent judiciary, a free media.
Second, we welcome all except those clearly involved in major corruption cases or abuse of power which would make it rather untenable for us to defend that they subscribe to these clear policies.
ATol: Before your incarceration you were widely seen as one of Asia's rising political stars and your political rehabilitation has now taken nearly a decade. Are yours, as some critics allege, the politics of revenge or the politics of genuine reform?
Anwar: What else could they say? I've said since 2004, "malice towards none" - this is [Abraham] Lincoln. I think we have to move on. It is almost impossible to pursue an agenda for change if we are stuck in the past. This does not mean that the billions that are gone must not be returned. But at the personal level, even those who assaulted me to near death, I have forgiven them and this has been made public. Unless they kick me again, then that's something else.
Even against Mahathir - he goes on lamenting about the issues and it all seems endless. Although his attacks against Abdullah Badawi are more vicious, he said in the event I take over as prime minister he would prefer to leave the country because I am not only close to America, but because I protect the Hindus and the Christians and whatever. His testament helps me to a degree, as people see me as fair to the Muslim cause, Christians and Hindus.
ATol: On Abdullah, do you see him as weak and does Malaysia need a strong leader to manage the transition to more democracy?
Anwar: Not a strong leader in the sense that you need to be authoritarian, but you must have a clear vision and policies. Obviously, you must be prepared to shift when necessary. Abdullah is clearly incompetent and corruption is more endemic under him. Nothing has happened.
Look at the royal commission on the judiciary: no further investigations; the case is closed. The same tainted corrupt judges are still there. Look at the police force - I would say we used to be proud of the judiciary and police at one time, but look at them now. Now the top brass is just like a stooge for politicians and those in political office and not respected for their professionalism.
Look at the state of the economy - just compare it to the 1990s. The 1990s were not the ideal, although I was part of it, but certainly if you compare the 90s to now you have neither the policies nor direction. The management of the economy is haphazard. They announce a policy today, withdraw it the following day ... Not only do they lack concern for the poor, but also for the direction of the economy.
ATol: When Mahathir first rose to power in 1981, his first big bang policy was the promulgation of a nationalistic "buy British last" campaign. Assuming you rise to power next month, as you have predicted, what will be your first big bang policy?
Anwar: I have made it very clear that the economy must be corrected. Which means we must do away immediately with cronyism, procurement and contract policies that favor sons and son-in-laws and family members. That's why you find [the prime minister's] son-in-law has launched a very vicious personal campaign against us.
With a clear policy the Malays, Chinese and Indians within the country will have more confidence in the system. And with this in place I'm very optimistic we will be able to attract back foreign direct investments back into Malaysia.
ATol: As a former finance minister, you once had access to the national accounts. Do you think there is a pressing need for more transparency over how state-owned oil giant Petronas and the national Employees Provident Fund (EPF) are run?
Anwar: Yes. I would say the general management of Petronas is satisfactory. But they are being directed how to disburse funds and priorities are made under political instructions. So it therefore has to be held accountable to parliament. Petronas is a national company and you can't have a national company beholden to only one man, the prime minister. It breeds suspicion.
So with the EPA; huge funds we are talking about. It must be very professionally managed. You can't use the EPA funds to prop up markets of your choice, or companies in your own stable, or invest according to strategies decided by the prime minister or his Cabinet.
ATol: So you would implement more transparency over both of these state institutions which many suspect are off-balance-sheet sources of government patronage?
Anwar: Yes, it has to be a very professional team. It has to be very transparent.
ATol: Mahathir often used "we-versus-them", anti-Western rhetoric for domestic political purposes, but you on the other hand are seen as a good friend of the West. Is that a liability in the current political environment?
Anwar: We have strong views against the US's foreign policy, but it is still a very important trading partner. It makes no sense to be hypocritical to deny the importance of the United States.
Look at China - they take strong foreign policy decisions, but they maintain very strong bilateral relations through trade and investments. Similarly, Malaysia must be more realistic in its approach. I have very strong views on Iraq. I believe the US must withdraw all its forces and be more fair and just in dealing with victims and the conflict. But it does not mean we must treat the United States as an enemy.
Do you want to engage with the United States administration? The answer is yes. I may not agree with their policies, but [engagement] is not only morally defensible, but it would help your own country, economy and credibility.
There is always a tendency for dictators and authoritarian leaders to use the US as a pretext or bogey to cover the stench in their own backyard. Why is the economy not developing - because of the United States. Why is the corruption in the billions, why are you not managing your economy well, why is your judiciary not independent, why is your media not free - blame the United States. That's not defensible.
ATol: What about the US's counterterrorism polices in Southeast Asia and the Bush government's dangling of free trade agreements in exchange for intelligence cooperation in that sometimes abusive campaign?
Anwar: I have some reservations about that because the obsession with the war on terror could cloud the rational basis of our deliberations. I would not tolerate violence or perpetrators of violence or terror. But I don't see the policy as legitimate or effective for now. It's proven: look at South Thailand and South Philippines.
I think [the US] should assist, yes. They should engage, I agree. But they should allow these countries in the region to evolve an effective mechanism for dealing and not as a war on terror. These are issues of poverty, marginalization, minority rights, dispossession. There are many issues, not just prescriptions from Washington that are particular to all.
I'm not soft on terrorism, that's not true at all. I believe in some very strong legislation. But I'm a democrat and I cannot agree with any legislation that calls for suspension of civil liberties or the writ of habeas corpus. To me these are contrary to the very spirit of the constitution and the US's bill of rights - though Bush has his own bill of rights.
ATol: Prime Minister Abdullah has said political ferment is weighing against the economy as well as foreign and local confidence. What message would you send to the foreign investment community about your movement and what change could they expect if you come to power?
Anwar: I made my position quite clear. We need to shift from the obsolete New Economic Policy [which favors majority Malays over minority Chinese and Indians] to a more vibrant, competitive Malaysian economic agenda. That means a market economy but tempered with a strong dosage of definitive justice.
ATol: That will require substantial dismantling because Malaysia has very much been a state-led economy throughout its recent development.
Anwar: Yes, but it has to be done very cautiously, in a sense that it shouldn't be destructive. It's economic policy or economic prescription with a conscience, to cite [economist Paul] Krugman. It's hard to be fair with a policy that protects cronies and that allows for endemic corruption.
If in the process in a multi-racial society you find groups marginalized or the indigenous population feels insecure, they can be propped up through measures such as affirmative action. But it must be transparent and based on needs, not based on family connections. I think this is important for assuring [foreign investors].
Why do foreign companies, in regard to issues of litigation and dispute settlement, chose Hong Kong or Singapore and not Malaysian courts? We lose hundreds of millions of ringgit annually because of this. Can we do anything about it? Yes, by bringing back integrity in the judicial process.
ATol: To establish this more rule-of-law based system would likely require prosecutions for ill-gotten gains and corruption in the past. How backward looking would an Anwar-led administration be?
Anwar: We would have to be very cautious at this stage. It would require so many resources and energy. To give a lesson learned, we would probably concentrate on a few select cases that involved billions of public funds.
ATol: So no need for a truth and reconciliation sort of commission?
Anwar: Some do propose that. Of course ours were nowhere near the atrocities seen under [South African] apartheid, but there were atrocities and abuse nonetheless. Frankly, I'm more concerned with what to do, what to change to evolve Malaysia into a greater country and more vibrant economy.
ATol: Mahathir had his vision for Malaysia to reach developed country status by 2020. What is your vision?
Anwar: I'm not so ambitious. There was a joke when I was younger while debating among my socialist friends whether you distribute wealth or distribute poverty. I just want to make sure Malaysia cherishes its freedom, has a vibrant democracy and economy, and is a country that brings all races together to feel the benefit of the vast resources the country can offer.
Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia Editor. He may be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
KUALA LUMPUR, July 28 — Malaysia’s deepening political crisis has tossed up an unexpected player — the country's usually passive royalty. Over the past year, Malaysia's royal households have started to flex their muscles and, in the process, scored rare successes in pushing their demands with the government on issues ranging from the appointment of judges to the selection of menteris besar after the country's general election in early March.
Now, analysts and constitutional lawyers believe that the country's nine Malay sultans, who make up the Conference of Rulers, could determine the outcome of Malaysia's deepening political crisis, which has stoked murmurings of a possible snap election and also the possibility that a state of emergency could be declared.
That is because the limited powers the country's Rulers enjoy under the Constitution will determine the cause of action Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's government can take to hold on to power, lawyers and analysts say.
Consider the following:
The Yang di-Pertuan Agong must give his consent should the government decide to dissolve Parliament and hold fresh elections to stave off any attempt by the opposition to form the government.
Should Malaysia's political situation worsen to the point that the government decides to declare a state of emergency, the King must sign off on the plan.
Above all, the King is the commander-in-chief of the country's armed forces. In a situation of a military takeover, he will become the most powerful person in Malaysia.
"For the first time since independence, the country's Malay Rulers are being pressed to exercise powers that they previously never had to," said Tommy Thomas, one of Malaysia's most senior constitutional lawyers.
All of this is because of Malaysia's unstable politics.
The outcome of the March general election has pushed the country into uncharted political terrain.
The ruling Barisan Nasional's loss of its two-thirds majority in Parliament and control of five state assemblies to an opposition alliance led by former Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has seen the Abdullah administration lurching from one political crisis to another.
Many political analysts say that the country's political log-jam is what is prompting the country's Malay Rulers to play a more forceful role in politics through their public pronouncements and actions.
Last week, the urbane Regent of Perak, Raja Nazrin Shah, told a gathering of public servants that the country's Malay Rulers were not symbolic monuments, and that their views should be taken seriously.
"Rulers have a wider responsibility to ensure that the spirit of the Constitution, the philosophy behind every law and the bigger interest of the country and its people are always understood and protected," Raja Nazrin told his audience. He added that when the advice given to Rulers contradicted the spirit of the Constitution, the chiefs of the royal households should not feel pressured to give their assent.
Many politicians and analysts say that comments by Raja Nazrin, who represents the largely new independent thinking among the Rulers, were clearly in reference to Malaysia's political despair, and they were intended to send a clear message that the Malay sultans were prepared to act independently in the event of a political face-off.
Malaysia's hereditary Rulers have long held a special role in Malaysian society.
They symbolise the special status of the country's Malay majority and are charged with protecting the Islamic faith and the community's customs.
Under the previous administration of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysia's hereditary Rulers played largely traditional roles and were treated as rubber stamps for administrative decisions.
The Rulers were also not popular because they were often portrayed by the Mahathir administration as an institution that was more interested in feathering its own nest than safeguarding the rights of the country's Malays.
But the image of the country's Malay Rulers has changed dramatically in recent years, largely because of the higher profile roles played by Raja Nazrin and Malaysia's current King, Sultan Mizan Zainal Abidin from Terengganu, who have spoken openly about governance and combating ills such as corruption and narrowing the country's growing racial divide.
Sultan Mizan, in particular, has not shied away from exercising his constitutional clout.
Shortly after the general election, the King refused to reappoint Datuk Seri Idris Jusuh, the Umno candidate favoured by the Abdullah administration, as Terengganu menteri besar.
The government was forced to appoint little-known Datuk Ahmad Said to avert a looming political crisis.
Sultan Mizan also led a campaign by his brother Rulers to help restore credibility in the country's judiciary when he steadfastly refused to accept the government's candidates for two top judicial positions.
In the end, the government was forced to agree to the candidates favoured by the Rulers.
"The King has shown independent thinking," said a senior Umno minister, who asked not to be named.
"Things can go either way, in favour of the government or the opposition." — Singapore ST
KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 6 — By declaring his intention to hand over power in mid-2010, beleaguered Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi must now grapple with the question of how history will judge him. A cursory assessment of his successes and failures since coming into office in November 2003 is not a pretty picture.
Findings of a recent survey by the respected Merdeka Centre showed that his popularity has slumped to its lowest level, cynicism towards his administration is on the rise and public confidence in the security and justice systems has eroded further.
In a nutshell, the promised break with the past — particularly the excesses in public management and the browbeating of once-independent public institutions associated with his predecessor — has not materialised.
For his part, Abdullah has maintained that the reforms he promised when coming to power will take time to implement.
But analysts are sceptical and many wonder if the premier will be able to use the two years that he still has in office to fix the damage and burnish his credentials before handing over power.
“Abdullah and Umno need to quickly realise that analog solutions won’t solve digital-age problems,??? says a senior associate of Abdullah. He concedes that the premier faces an uphill battle winning back the confidence he enjoyed in the early months of 2004 when his popularity was at its peak.
Ironically for Abdullah, he faces the prospect of his legacy being defined by how his government treats its chief political nemesis Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. The sacking of Anwar from government and subsequent jail sentences a decade ago cast a permanent blight on Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s 22 years in office.
Similar to events 10 years ago, Anwar faces accusations of sodomy and the police are widely expected to charge him in the coming days. Again, he is alleging that the accusations are part of a government conspiracy to prevent him from coming to power.
Abdullah’s problem is that many Malaysians think so too.
According to the recent Merdeka Centre survey, only 11 per cent of the Malays and Chinese, and 13 per cent of the Indians polled believe the allegations of sexual misconduct against the former deputy premier.
Of the 1,030 randomly selected Malaysians whose views were polled, 50 per cent of the Malays, 59 per cent of the Chinese and 75 per cent of the Indians believe Anwar is a victim of a frame- up.
This tricky tightrope walk in dealing with Anwar will come into sharp focus during the campaign in the upcoming by-election in Abdullah’s home state of Penang.
The by-election at Permatang Pauh, which is close to Abdullah’s own constituency of Kepala Batas, is set to become a referendum of sorts on the Barisan Nasional government.
Still, some analysts believe Abdullah’s problems stem from the reluctance of his ruling Umno party to accept the March 8 election result. This was when Malaysians from across the racial divide rejected the Umno-led BN coalition because of rampant corruption and its tone-deaf style of running the government.
They note that Anwar’s political gains are simply because he has managed to tap this wellspring of discontent.
To arrest the government’s decline, Abdullah will need to show more determination in his reform agenda and radically change Umno’s image as a monolithic organisation bereft of checks and balances.
Anwar Ibrahim, the Malaysian opposition leader, said on Thursday he would run for a parliamentary seat, which his wife would vacate, even though he faced imminent arrest on charges of allegedly sodomising a former aide.
Mr Anwar told the Financial Times that he was gathering support for a "no confidence" motion to be filed in the next six weeks, which could oust the National Front government that has ruled the country since independence from Britain 50 years ago. He also dismissed suggestions the opposition coalition might be cracking.
Mr Anwar was barred from contesting general elections in March after being found guilty of alleged abuse of power relating to an earlier sodomy conviction, which was later overturned. However, the opposition's unprecedented success in that vote has left it fewer than 30 votes short of a parliamentary majority in the 222-seat legislature, and the restriction on his campaigning has expired.
Even if charged, Mr Anwar could still compete in a by-election and, if successful, fill the seat currently held by his wife, Wan Azizah Wan Ismail. Under these circumstances, he could be removed only if he were convicted and exhausted all appeals.
An official told Reuters on Thursday Mr Anwar faced formal charges "any time now". Under Malaysian law, sodomy is punishable by up to 20 years in prison. Meanwhile, Mr Anwar told the FT that the latest allegations were "a political ploy".
"Instead of addressing pressing economic problems like soaring inflation, the government is trying to divert public attention with this filthy sodomy charade," he said. "Our ministers waste their time in political intrigue instead of trying to help make the country more competitive."
The authorities have hurried to wrap up their investigations after the leaking this week of a medical report by a doctor who had examined Mr Anwar's accuser after the alleged assault and found no signs of injury.
Local media have recently speculated that the three-party opposition Pakatan coalition informally led by Mr Anwar could be on the verge of breaking up, with the Islamist Pas group potentially joining Umno, the lead party in the National Front, after reports of previously undisclosed talks between the two parties.
"Pas leaders have assured me that they have no desire of leaving the Pakatan and joining Barisan [National Front] or merging with Umno," said Mr Anwar. "They have kept me informed of their meetings with Umno. What has happened in the past few weeks is that government- controlled media – through careful leaks, manipulation and distortion of statements – has created this fairy tale that Pas and Umno are about to merge or share power. Having lost the support of the people, Umno is now trying to divide our coalition.
"Let me tell you: Pas is not joining Umno," he said. "If Umno leaders believe they can rely on Pas or other members of Pakatan to save their sinking ship, they are dreaming."
